Recently, waste paper fell again from the rebound high, falling for several days, until today it eased slightly. Today, the mainstream of the national waste market remains stable, and individual manufacturers have mixed prices. Fujian Shanying and Anhui Xinguang in East China edged up by 30, while Central China Hubei Rongcheng, Hunan Tianhe, and Xinjinlong dropped by 20-30. Shanying's Fujian base today raised individual specifications by 30 yuan/ton, and the yellowboard A grade price was 2530 yuan/ton.
According to statistics, today's national waste paper index is 2529.0. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Leading paper companies have maintained stable receipts, and individual manufacturers have adjusted their prices slightly. Recently, the arrival of paper mills has been reduced compared with the previous period, and manufacturers’ inventories have continued to be low. Today, the Nine Dragons base has received a discount of 50 yuan/ton for finished paper, supply and demand Both face the strong support of waste paper prices, and it is expected that the national waste market will temporarily stop falling and stabilize, or there will be a slight room for increase.
At the same time, as another source of raw paper-based raw materials, pulp prices have been sluggish recently, and the decline in pulp futures prices and sluggish demand have put double pressure on the Chinese pulp market.
The settlement price of SP2109 pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 82/ton to 6,216/ton on Friday. The settlement prices of SP2110 and SP2111 were 6,058/ton and 5,984/ton respectively. The future arbitrage space for most softwood pulp varieties was therefore closed. The loss of capital favors has further exacerbated the downturn in pulp futures. In the hardwood pulp market, the low domestic paper and paperboard prices and the imminent release of new capacity for bleached hardwood pulp have caused buyers to destock. Market sources said this has caused suppliers to continue to cut prices.
Due to the weak operation of raw material prices, the price trend of base paper will also be under pressure again. As the market enters September, I thought it would usher in the traditional peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten". After all, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are just around the corner, and the "Double Eleven" shopping festival is closely followed, which can be said to be one year. The most popular time period for orders in China. But looking at the market, the response is mediocre. The downstream market demand seems to fall short of expectations. The demand orders for Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other festivals are digested too quickly, and the new orders are just a drop in the bucket.
And in the current situation where the demand for orders in the market has not increased, the entire market is slightly dull. Given the imbalance between supply and demand of market demand and new capacity, will this year continue to be "Golden September Silver October"(Referring to the annual busy season during Sep.- Oct. )?
Regarding this question, the market has institutional analysis. From the effective control of the epidemic situation and the data analysis of the consumer environment, according to the restoration space and recovery highlights of the consumption field, it is believed that the recovery time of consumption will occur in October, and its views are listed: Regarding the consumption situation since the third quarter, the service industry PMI data in July showed acceptable performance, and the prosperity of tourism-related industries such as accommodation and catering has improved, showing the driving effect of the summer tourist season on consumption. However, after entering August, both tourism and overall consumption have experienced a short-term decline. High-frequency data shows that the number of subway trips in cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Suzhou has declined this month. "The third quarter of the previous year was the peak tourist season in the country, and at present, students are generally required to return to the school location in advance, which means that the summer tourist peak is over early." said Dong Qi, chief macro analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute. From the perspective of consumer goods retail, October is the peak season for consumption throughout the year, which may open the next window of consumption restoration."
In addition, institutional analysis also indicated that there have been 4 rounds of continuous upward CPI since 2007, and superimposed economic upward, optional consumption performance is relatively better, such as gold and silver jewelry, furniture, cars, etc.; if CPI upward superimposes economic downward, then consumption is necessary It performs better with mass consumption, including food and beverages, daily necessities, cosmetics, etc.
However, this is very different from everyone’s traditional perception of “Golden September and Silver October”. It is not only due to the pessimistic expectations of traditional demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. If the consumption recovery starts in October as predicted by the agency, the peak season of the packaging industry in 2021 will be delayed again. A month later, for most packaging companies whose profit margins have been suppressed to the limit, does it mean that the revenue expected in the second half of the year will be greatly reduced?
With the gradual announcement of the annual reports of various companies in the first half of the year, there have been mixed results in all sectors of the industry. We can see that the profit growth of mid- and downstream cardboard and carton companies is not high. If the fourth quarter's financial report is not satisfactory, the 2021 packaging company's year-end report card will be record-breaking ugly in terms of profit.
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